| Protectionism in Advanced Economies and Structural Transformation in Emerging Markets: Evidence from India’s Sectoral Export Competitiveness under U.S. Tariff Escalation |
Vijay Agrawal |
| Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra - Patna Campus, Patna, India |
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Corresponding Author:
Vijay Agrawal ,Email: vagarwal@bitmesra.ac.in |
| Copyright ©2026 The Journal of Economic Integration |
| ABSTRACT |
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This research examines the evolution of India’s export competitiveness using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Trade Specialization Index (TSI) for the four critical sectors: Textiles, Footwear, Chemicals and Machinery and Electricals for the period 2013-2022. Using a longitudinal econometric model with sectoral feedbacks, the results show that trade specialization is associated with comparative advantage, although the effects are sector-specific. Chemicals and Textiles continue to show strong RCA, Footwear shows a negative specialization-competitiveness linkage, and Machinery and Electricals exhibit latent competitive potential that has not yet been fully realized. To these findings, the study simulates tariff forecast adjustments (2023-2027) after the U.S.-India tariff hike of August 2025, where punitive tariffs of 50-59% were placed on these sectors. The forecasts confirm that tariff shocks significantly erode competitiveness. Textiles and Footwear are predicted to decline sharply while Chemicals and Machinery are predicted to lose resilient structural strengths. The results indicate that comparative advantage is path dependent and externally constrained. Findings support diversification, value-added upgrading and resilient industrial policy for developing nations.
JEL Classification
F14: Empirical Studies of Trade
F15: Economic Integration
O24: Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
O53: Asia including Middle East |
| Keywords:
Export Competitiveness | Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) | Trade Specialization Index (TSI) | Tariff Escalation | Sectoral Heterogeneity | India
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