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Journal of Economic Integration 2022 September;37(3) :423-457.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2022.37.3.423
Building Scenarios on the Regional Integration in Eurasia along the New Silk Road

Hannes Thees 1 and Greta Erschbamer 2

1Chair of Tourism/ Center for Entrepreneurship, Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Germany
2Center for Advanced Studies, Eurac Research, Italy
Corresponding Author: Hannes Thees ,Email: hannes.thees@outlook.de
Copyright ©2022 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
Regions are gaining importance as globalization struggles with local sustainable implementation. Thus, regional integration assumes economic development based on transnational cooperation, including regionalization and regionalism. The New Silk Road (NSR) offers a set of policies (including the Belt and Road Initiative) for regional integration that faces challenges in geopolitics and geoeconomics with problems at the local and regional scale, especially along its core corridor, namely, the Eurasian Land Bridge. Therefore, we focus on the NSR implementation by examining the scenarios for future regional integration along the NSR in Eurasia. Using a stepwise scenario building method, including a literature review and qualitative interviews, four scenarios are outlined to explore regional cooperation and the impacts: from (1) withdrawal/reduction of the NSR towards (2) solo efforts by Chinese shareholders, (3) corridorintegration and finally, (4) deep regional integration. This study examines the interface between economic geography and international relations.

JEL Classification
F02: International Economic Order
P45: International Trade, Finance, Investment, and Aid
O18: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
O19: International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
O24: Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
O47: Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross Country Output Convergence
P25: Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
R11: Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
R58: Regional Development Planning and Policy
F15: Economic Integration
Keywords: New Silk Road | Belt and Road | Regional Integration | Regional Effects | Regional Cooperation | Scenario Building
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