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Journal of Economic Integration 1998 June;13(2) :292-310.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.1998.13.2.292
Intertemporal Balance, Sustainability and Efficiency of the Exchange Rate Mechanism
Ho-don Yan 
Feng-Chia University
Copyright ©1998 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
Under the assumption that the balance of payments must satisfy the expected i n t e rtemporal balance, this paper seeks to establish a pre-condition for a crisis of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Proposing that non-stationarity of the g rowth rate of assets is evidence of a violation of expected intertemporal bal ance, we calculate Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics of the growth rate of for eign exchange re s e rves prior to the ERM crisis in September, 1992 for member states. In all, but one, of the crisis experiences, there is no evidence of a violation of intertemporal balance prior to the month of the crisis. However, the persistent violation of intertemporal balance by Italy prior to the crisis reflects that the fun damental disequilibrium matters to the viability of the ERM. With no evidence of efficient allocation of the foreign re s e rves within the member states, the ERM is exposed to attack by speculators. (JEL Classification: F31, F33)
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