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Journal of Economic Integration 2006 September;21(3) :619-656.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2006.21.3.619
An Empirical Characterisation of Speculative Pressure: A Comprehensive Panel Study Using LDV Models in High Frequency
Tassos G. Anastasatos and 
Ian R. Davidson 
Loughborough University, Leicestershire
Copyright ©2006 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT

This article provides a general and robust empirical examination of speculative pressure on various exchange rate regimes using an unusually large panel of monthly data for developed countries, analysed within the framework of Limited- Dependent Variable (LDV) models with various innovations and extensions. In comparison to studies with lower frequency data, significant differences are found in linking crises with macroeconomic, financial and political fundamentals, despite the noise increasing tendency of higher frequency data. Considerable heterogeneity in the events surrounding crises is documented, rendering globally applicable rules for prediction and prevention inappropriate. The findings are robust to different specifications but the definition of a crisis has a bearing on its predictability.

JEL Classifications: F31, C23, C25, E44, G15

Keywords: Currency crises | Speculative pressure | Exchange rate | Devaluation | Limited-dependent variable models
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