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Journal of Economic Integration 2016 March;31(1) :103-133.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2016.31.1.103
From Oil to Stock Markets
Khaled Guesmi
Heni Boubaker and 
Van Son Lai 
IPAG Lab, IPAG Business School, Paris, France
Laval University, Faculty of Business Administration, Quebec, Canada
Corresponding Author: Khaled Guesmi ,Tel: +33 01550440, Fax: +33 0145444046, Email: khaled.guesmi@ipag.fr
Copyright ©2016 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
This study investigates the impacts of crude oil price variations on the French and American stock market returns using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices, the CAC40, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average indexes for the period of 1999~2012. Our results show strong evidence of fractional cointegration between oil and stock market indices, suggesting the presence of a relationship that governs their long-run joint movements. We find that dynamic correlations increase dramatically during crisis periods, but they move towards their initial levels after those periods. The effect of the lower oil price on the development of the global economy depends not only on whether the low price is expected to be temporary or persistent but also on the causes of the oil price fall. Market analysis shows that the new price levels of oil are caused by the simple mechanism of supply and demand. The low price of oil in 2014 is caused by reduced oil demand because of the slower economic growth in Chinese economy and the impact of developed world’s drive to reduce carbon emissions on the oil market. Given the country-specific dynamic links between oil and stock markets, policymakers may make appropriate policies to reduce the impact of adverse oil price effects on production and economic activities, while investors can optimally design their diversification and hedging strategies, considering oil price persistence patterns.

JEL Classification
C10: General
E44: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G15: International Financial Markets
Keywords: Oil Prices | Stock Markets | Multivariate Fractional Cointegration | Corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (c-DCC-FIAPARCH)
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