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Journal of Economic Integration 2013 June;28(2) :285-302.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2013.28.2.285
The EU’s Strategy for Trans-Pacific Partnership
Patrick Messerlin 
Groupe d’Economie Mondiale, Sciences Po Paris., Paris, France
Corresponding Author: Patrick Messerlin ,Tel: +331 45497256, Email: Patrick.messerlin@free.fr.
Copyright ©2013 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT
This paper attempts to assess the discriminatory impact that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could have on the EU economy. It gives robust evidence that the discriminatory impact will be dramatic if the TPP is successful in reducing or abolishing “behind the border” barriers among member countries. This situation leaves the EU with only two options. First option consists in doing nothing. It is costly from the beginning, as East Asian economies are already quite large. More importantly, the cost of this option will keep rising because EU’s weight will decline whereas the East Asian weight will keep rising. In such a context, threatening to close the EU markets as a leverage to open non-EU markets damages credibility. The second option consists in insuring the EU against a successful TPP by reaching a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with Japan, and then with Taiwan. Concluding PTAs with Japan and Taiwan is not only an insurance policy against the TPP, but it also allows the EU to boost the development of Europe, East Asia, and global trade.

JEL Classification
F13: Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F15: Economic Integration
Keywords: European Union | Preferential Trade Agreements | Regulatory reforms | Trans- Pacific Agreement | World Trade Organization.
 
REFERENCE
1. Barfield, Claude, 2011. The Trans-Pacific Partnership: A Model for twenty-first-century trade agreements? American Enterprise institute for Public Policy Research. International Economic Outlook. No. 2. June, Washington, DC.
2. Buiter, Willem and Ebrahim Rahbari, 2011. Trade transformed – The emerging corridors if trade power. 18 October 2011. CITI Global Perspective Solutions (GPS).CITI.
3. Fergusson, Ian, and Bruce Vaughn, 2011. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Congressional Research Service. December 12. Washington, DC.
4. Messerlin, Patrick, 2012a, The EU Preferential Trade Agreements: Defining Priorities for a Debt-Ridden, Growth-Starving EU. Mimeo, available on http://gem.sciences-po.fr
5. Messerlin, Patrick, 2012b, EU public procurement markets: how open are they? Mimeo, available on http:// gem.sciences-po.fr
6. Petri, Peter, Michael Plummer, and Fan Zhai. 2011. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment. East-West Center Working Papers. Economic series, No. 119, October 24, 2012.
7. Schott, Jeffrey and Julia Muir, 2012. US FTAs: What has been done and what it means for the TPP negotiations. Mimeo. Peterson Institute for International Economics. Washington, DC.
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