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Journal of Economic Integration 2012 June;27(2) :280-290.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2012.27.2.280
Why Do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?
Christoph Moser and 
Andrew K. Rose 
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
University of California, Berkeley
Copyright ©2012 Journal of Economic Integration
ABSTRACT

The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their conclusion. We use data from 88 regional trade agreements between 1988 and 2009, and a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model. Four factors are robust determinants of the length of RTA negotiations. Negotiations are more protracted when there are more countries at the negotiation table, and when the countries are not from the same region. Negotiations between more open and richer countries also finish more quickly.

JEL Classification: F13, F51, F53

Keywords: Regional | GATT | WTO | Duration | Income | Data | Empirical
 
REFERENCE
1. Cleves, Mario, Roberto Gutierrez, William Gould and Yulia Marchenko (2004) An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using STATA, College Station: Stata Press.
2. Cox, D. R. (1972), "Regression Models and Life-tables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, Vol. 34, pp. 187-220.
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